Tesla: Demand Softens; NBIM Opposes Pay; Stock Falls
With Tesla shares pulling back as governance headlines collide with mixed regional demand data, investors are weighing how Thursday’s votes and near-term delivery trends could reshape the narrative–not just for TSLA’s multiple, but for its AI and autonomy ambitions heading into year-end.
Market Reaction and Stock Performance
On Tuesday, November 4, Tesla (TSLA) closed down 5.15% at $444.26, retreating from recent highs within a 52-week range of $214.25- $488.54 (per Benzinga’s end-of-day snapshot). Earlier that morning, shares were off about 2.5% in U.S. premarket trading following Norway’s sovereign wealth fund announcing a vote against Elon Musk’s proposed compensation (CNBC reported the move in Tuesday premarket). Options flow showed a “bullish-leaning but mixed” stance over the last month: among 1,000 large trades tracked, 741 were calls totaling about $58.24 million, versus 259 puts totaling roughly $20.88 million (Benzinga, Monday evening). Zacks noted the implied weekly move around +/-6% into Thursday’s shareholder meeting, highlighting heightened event risk (Zacks, late Monday).
The Demand Catalyst: Europe and China data
Demand cooling dominated the last 24 hours. In China, the China Passenger Car Association reported Tesla’s Shanghai factory sold 61,497 vehicles in October (including exports), down 9.9% year over year, with exports down 32.3% month over month (Benzinga, Tuesday). In Europe, preliminary October registration tallies across nine core markets totaled 4,710 units, down 36.3% year over year. Only France showed growth (+83.7% YoY), while Sweden (-88.7%), Finland (-67.6%), Norway (-50.2%), Austria (-64.5%), Italy (-47.1%), the Netherlands (-47.9%), Portugal (-58.7%), and Spain (-30.6%) declined (Electrek data compiled by Benzinga, Tuesday). Competitive pressure remains acute: BYD’s September European sales surged 398% year over year, expanding into new territories and challenging market share (Benzinga, prior month data). In the U.S., part of Q3’s record deliveries was aided by buyers pulling forward purchases ahead of the federal EV tax credit expiry on September 30, increasing the risk of a Q4 delivery air pocket (Zacks commentary, Monday night).
Governance, Autonomy Strategy, and Regulatory Overhang – Outlook
- Governance votes: Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), which holds about 1.14% of Tesla, said Tuesday it already cast votes against Musk’s close-to-$1-trillion CEO pay package, citing concerns over award size, dilution, and key person risk. “We will continue to seek constructive dialogue with Tesla on this and other topics,” the fund’s managers said (CNBC, Tuesday premarket). Thursday, November 6, shareholders will vote on the pay, directors, and an investment in Musk’s AI startup xAI; prediction markets show high odds the pay package passes (PolyMarket ~94%, Kalshi ~91%), while the xAI and director votes could significantly influence strategy and board independence (Zacks, Monday night).
- Product and autonomy updates: To broaden its price ladder in Europe, production of the affordable Model Y Standard has started at Giga Berlin, with Head of Production Andre Thierig calling it a “remarkable milestone” less than nine months after launching the Premium trim (posted Monday on X, Benzinga). On software monetization, Tesla plans to let U.S. customers “gift” Full Self-Driving subscriptions, with Sales Head Raj Jegannathan saying on Sunday, “Will have it ready before holidays!” (Benzinga). Emphasizing Tesla’s vertical integration, Business Development and Charging lead George Bahadue argued Monday on X that Tesla is “building the full stack, end to end,” contrasting rivals who must assemble multiple components (Benzinga).
- Regulation and safety: The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration expanded its probe into flush-mounted electronic door handles after continued reports from owners; as of October 27, the Office of Defects Investigations cited 16 reports of Model Y exterior handles becoming inoperative due to low 12V battery voltage (CNBC, Monday). Tesla must provide requested records by December 10 or risk fines of $27,874 per violation per day, up to $139,356,994. Meanwhile, China’s MIIT has circulated draft vehicle safety standards covering door handle accessibility and emergency interior release mechanisms, with comments open through November 22 (CNBC, Monday).
- Analyst framing: Wedbush’s Dan Ives reiterated Tesla as the “most undervalued AI name,” a “physical-AI play” leveraging vehicles plus end-to-end vision AI for robotaxi expansion (Motley Fool, Tuesday). Sell-side targets remain mixed (recent average around $385; range ~$300- $520, per Benzinga), reflecting optimism on AI and robotics against near-term EV demand and regulatory uncertainties.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is based on publicly available information. It does not constitute financial or investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.
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